Gold and Silver Hold Gains Above $4,100 While NFP Looms — The Pulse

MARKET SNAPSHOT

Gold Spot (XAU/USD)	$4,130.27/oz (up $67.57, +1.66% from prior close) — two-week high; session high reached $4,146.63 intraday
Silver Spot (XAG/USD)	$53.12/oz (up $0.89, +1.70% from prior close) — clearing the psychological $50 handle by more than $3; second consecutive session of gains
Gold/Silver Ratio	77.8:1 — historically elevated but pulling back from Tuesday's near-80 "undervalued silver" threshold as silver's higher-beta profile amplifies the political catalyst
Brent Crude	$96.30–$99.52/bbl (up approximately +1.77% from prior close — partial stabilization after Wednesday's sharp -9% reversal on US-Iran diplomatic easing reports)
DXY (US Dollar Index)	101.62 — marginal bounce off Wednesday's five-week low of 101.26; stabilizing but not reversing; still near multi-month lows
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.865% — down approximately 3 basis points from prior session; lowest since September 10; long-end yields broadly lower post-midterms
S&P 500 (SPY)	$766.81 (intraday range $762.64–$775.64; post-midterm risk-on rally continuing into second session)
VIX	16.95 — below the 20 stress threshold; down sharply from 20.83 on November 3; confirms this is a dollar/yield-driven metals move, not a fear-based safe-haven spike

Both metals are extending Wednesday's breakout into a second consecutive session. According to the LBMA London gold fix, the benchmark settled at approximately $4,138/oz during Thursday's London session, with Asian markets handing off firm — the Shanghai Gold Exchange carried a $0.6% premium over the London PM benchmark, a signal of genuine Chinese physical demand rather than speculative paper flow. COMEX December gold futures traded at $4,139.60 at the open, with open interest at 266,500 contracts and volume at 93,340 contracts (CME Group data). Per the most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report (October 27), managed money held a net long position of 105,562 COMEX gold contracts and 3,321 silver contracts — elevated but not extreme, with speculative room remaining if macroeconomic tailwinds persist. The next COT release Friday will capture pre-election positioning through November 3, with post-election repositioning visible the following week.

MARKET CONTEXT

Wednesday's midterm results sent the dollar to a five-week low and Treasury yields to their lowest since September 10. Those two channels — a weaker dollar and lower long-end rates — are the primary mechanical lift underneath gold and silver this week. What makes Thursday meaningful is not just the continuation, but the breadth of it.

Hong Kong led the overnight session. Laopu Gold (06181.HK) surged more than 8% intraday, Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) gained 6%, and the Hang Seng added 900 points as mainland Chinese buyers moved through the equity and physical channels simultaneously. Jewelry and watch sales in Hong Kong are running at their highest pace since 2019, according to Business Mirror reporting on November 5 — a data point that connects mainland Chinese wealth-preservation demand to tangible retail activity. That is not speculative paper flow. It is physical buying.

London confirmed the move. The LBMA fix at approximately $4,138/oz absorbed Asia's gains without reversal, supported by a 3.26% German Bund yield that has eased alongside a weaker EUR/USD at 1.1229. Germany's factory orders missed expectations on Thursday, adding a mild undercurrent of European growth concern that historically adds safe-haven demand at the margin.

The World Gold Council's Q3 2026 Demand Trends report provides the structural backdrop behind this week's catalyst-driven move: central banks purchased 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter alone, a 42% year-over-year increase and the fastest pace since late 2024. Year-to-date institutional demand stands at 675 tonnes, tracking toward a full-year total that could match or exceed 2025's record. The People's Bank of China has purchased gold for 23 consecutive months, holding 2,410 tonnes through September 2026 — with October's figure due around November 7.

That is the structural floor. The political catalyst this week accelerated what was already in motion.

MAVERICK TRADING JOURNAL

No new position today. Two positions remain open: a GLD call opened June 26 at $366 that has recovered to $372.49 — roughly $4.51 below the $377 target — and an SLV buy from March 31 that is still below entry on the spot reference frame, though silver's two-session surge from below $50 to $53.12 has narrowed that gap considerably.

No new entry today is not a reluctant call. It is the straightforward one: October Nonfarm Payrolls publishes tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus is +65,000 jobs versus September's +29,000, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%. NFP is the week's decisive print for gold because it directly resets the 81.5% December Fed rate hike probability currently priced by CME FedWatch. A strong print reinforces the hike and puts pressure back on gold — potentially all the way back toward $4,000. A soft print adds to the case for a Fed pause and extends the rally.

Opening a position inside a 24-hour binary event window is not a strategy. It is a coin flip on a number neither I nor anyone else can predict.

The two open positions carry their own situation. The GLD call is within reach of its $377 target — the gap is roughly 1.2% from today's reference. The question of whether to close into post-NFP strength or let it ride through the breakout is a decision that belongs with the full picture tomorrow morning.

On silver: the Gold/Silver Ratio at 77.8:1 remains historically elevated, meaning silver is still relatively underpriced compared to gold by historical standards. The ratio has pulled back from Tuesday's 79.5 reading near the 80 threshold that has historically marked acute silver undervaluation. It is moving in the right direction. The structural case for silver — a sixth consecutive year of supply deficit, widening to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 per Silver Institute data, alongside industrial demand across solar panels, EVs, and AI infrastructure — remains intact regardless of where any single session settles. Pre-election ETF flow data showed SLV attracting $430.36 million in weekly inflows while GLD saw $143.5 million in outflows (ETF.com data, November 2), indicating investors were tilting toward silver even before Wednesday's surge.

Three sessions in a row — Asian, London, and US — have confirmed the upward move on both metals for the second straight day. The framework reads that kind of extended agreement as a trend in progress, not a setup to fade. No fresh entry today honors both the NFP window and what that trend is saying.

THE TAKEAWAY

Gold at $4,130 and silver at $53 this Thursday morning are sitting at levels that would have seemed implausible during last week's forced-liquidation selloff, when gold briefly touched $3,880 and silver tested below $50. The political catalyst accelerated the recovery. The structural bid from central banks, sovereign reserves, and physical demand across Asia and Europe supplied the foundation.

Tomorrow's NFP report will test which of those forces has more weight. A labor market that runs hotter than expected gives the Fed reason to hold the December hike on track. That matters for gold and silver because it affects the dollar and real rates — the two transmission channels doing most of the work this week.

Today's session is consistent with what a DCA accumulation framework is designed to absorb. The near-term price action is recovering off last week's lows. The structural picture — central bank buying at the fastest pace since late 2024, six consecutive years of silver supply deficits, and SGE premiums confirming Chinese physical demand — does not change based on one jobs number.

That is not investment advice. It is simply what the data says. The decision of when and how to act on it is yours. Alex Lexington's team is here to answer questions about physical gold and silver — coins, bullion, and vault storage — for anyone thinking through what their position looks like heading into year-end.

FORWARD OUTLOOK

The week-ahead calendar is dense. October NFP publishes tomorrow, Friday November 6, at 8:30 AM ET — consensus +65,000 jobs, with the December hike probability at 81.5% per CME FedWatch hanging directly on that number. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report releases at 3:30 PM ET Friday, capturing pre-election positioning through November 3. The People's Bank of China's October gold reserve data is expected around Sunday, November 7 — the continuation of its 23-month buying streak will be a closely watched confirmation signal. Next week: US CPI on Monday November 10 and PPI on Thursday November 13. The FOMC meeting is December 9. The Dubai Precious Metals Conference runs November 16–17. Each of these releases carries the potential to reset gold's near-term direction.

DISCLOSURE

This content reflects disclosed trading activity and market analysis for educational purposes. Alex Lexington does not manage client funds or provide personalized financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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