Silver Down 13.5% in September — And the Buy Window Is Open

MARKET SNAPSHOT

September closed with gold down 8.5% and silver down 13.5% — numbers worth sitting with for a moment. Per BullionVault, that is the deepest monthly compression for either metal since 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.33% intraday Thursday, its highest level since 2002 according to Bloomberg, after rising 44 basis points in a single month — the fastest monthly repricing in four years. The dollar index at 101.58 is pressing toward its yearly high. Those two forces — real yields and dollar strength — are the mechanical explanation for September's selloff.

The structural picture tells a different story. Gold ETFs absorbed approximately $9 billion in net inflows during September per Morningstar, an accumulation-into-weakness signal rather than a capitulation. The People's Bank of China extended its buying streak to 22 consecutive months, adding 20.2 tonnes in August — the largest single-month addition since October 2023 — bringing total reserves to a record 2,387 tonnes according to the World Gold Council. CFTC Commitments of Traders data through September 15 shows large speculative net longs at approximately 231,960 contracts, with no capitulation flush evident through the price decline. Institutional analysts at Deutsche Bank ($4,800), Standard Chartered ($4,650), ING ($4,600), and JPMorgan and Citi ($4,500) all have year-end gold targets materially above today's $4,182 spot.

One international note worth flagging: mainland Chinese exchanges — the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Hong Kong exchanges — are closed through October 7 for Golden Week. The physical bid from China's buyers, which has been a durable floor under Asian session prices, steps aside entirely this week. That leaves London and New York with disproportionate price-setting weight until buyers return October 8. The reopening often produces a concentrated burst of accumulated buying — something worth watching in next week's Asian session data.

MARKET CONTEXT

Q4 opens with a specific tension between what the near-term rate environment is doing to prices and what the multi-year structural bid is doing to demand. Real yields at their highest since 2002 and a dollar approaching yearly highs are genuine headwinds — that is not spin, that is the arithmetic of gold pricing in a rising real-rate environment. What those numbers do not capture is where demand flows are actually going.

The India picture is worth noting here. October begins India's wedding and festive season — historically the largest physical demand window of the calendar year, with the World Gold Council estimating October's import bill at roughly 120 tonnes in typical years. The 15% import duty enacted in May has reduced volumes, but the seasonal pattern remains. India's silver imports surged 127% year-over-year in August, a demand rotation story that continues as the festive season accelerates. Perth Mint data from October 2025 — the comparable quarter-start period last year — recorded gold coin and bar sales of 85,603 ounces, up 186% year-over-year, and silver sales of 1.061 million ounces, up 83% month-over-month. Those are the structural demand signals running alongside the rate-driven price correction.

Friday brings September's Nonfarm Payrolls report at 8:30 AM Eastern, with a consensus expectation around 90,000 jobs added. ADP printed 90,000 earlier this week against a 70,000 estimate. The outcome will either extend the post-PCE recovery in metals or restore September's downward pressure. Until that number hits, the tape is in a pre-catalyst holding pattern.

MAVERICK TRADING JOURNAL

No new position today. We are holding two open positions — the GLD call from June 26 and the SLV buy from March 31 — and with Friday's NFP report inside the 24-hour window, this is not the session to add exposure on either side. We already hold two positions. We are not adding a third today.

The GLD position has been past its documented $377 target since July 30. The wrapper today sits at approximately $382.85 against a $366 entry — roughly +4.60% unrealized. That cushion has compressed meaningfully from the August 26 peak near +15%, and Friday's NFP outcome could move it either direction. The SLV position is a different picture: silver spot at $61.26 remains about $2.77 below the $64.03 entry line. The September correction extended the gap after silver had nearly recovered to entry in late August — the position traced from -17% in early July through +$4.97 above entry briefly in late August, back through today's -14.87% on the SLV wrapper. That is a wide arc across six months.

Both close decisions remain with Andre per the framework's design. No auto-closes here.

THE TAKEAWAY

Two months ago, with gold approaching $4,730 and silver above $71, the conditions for physical accumulation looked different. Today's configuration — gold 25% below its January all-time high of $5,598, silver down 13.5% in a single month, the gold/silver ratio at 68.3 and above its historical mean band — is the structural condition the Physical Buy Window framework is designed to recognize.

The monthly compression on both metals sits deep beyond the thresholds that the framework identifies as BUY WINDOW OPEN on physical accumulation. Silver's September loss of 13.5% is more than double the upper edge of the normal monthly swing range for the metal. Gold's 8.5% is similarly extended. Today's session — with both metals recovering modestly off recent lows — is consistent with what a disciplined accumulation interval is designed to absorb: a window well inside the correction, with the structural bid from sovereign buyers, institutional ETF flows, and seasonal physical demand all reinforcing in the background.

The derivative channel is paused. The physical channel is open. Those two things can be simultaneously true, and this week they are.

For context on what to watch: ISM Manufacturing PMI releases at 10:00 AM ET today. September NFP releases Friday at 8:30 AM ET. The October FOMC meeting is approximately 28 days out. China's buyers return October 8. Each of these will shape how October develops.

Three generations of our family have been in this business, and we have seen corrections like September before. The question we always come back to is not whether the price declined — it did — but what the structural demand picture looks like when you step back from the month. Right now, central banks are buying at record pace, institutional money moved $9 billion into gold ETFs during the selloff, and India's festive season is opening. That is the context around today's price.

DISCLOSURE

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